Multiple pressures active right now

Diesel is the most constrained fuel at 21 days. Diesel matters most for cascading failure — it powers freight, agriculture, mining, and emergency services. A diesel shortage propagates through the entire supply chain within days. Jet fuel at 21 days is below comfortable margins — flight cancellations and route suspensions become likely below 15 days.

The IEA minimum obligation is 90 days. Australia is 28 days short even by the headline figure, and 45 days short by what is physically in the country. Australia has been below the 90-day IEA minimum since 2012 — the only IEA member nation failing this obligation continuously. The MSO headline methodology counts fuel on coastal vessels, in pipelines, and within the exclusive economic zone. In a sudden supply disruption (strait closure, shipping disruption, refinery incident), only the onshore figure represents fuel that is immediately available.

Onshore breakdown: diesel 1986 ML, gasoline 1373 ML, jet fuel 580 ML. Total onshore product stocks (crude oil equivalent): 6528 ML. Volume data complements the days-of-cover metric. A country can have stable days-of-cover while volumes fall if consumption falls — which may indicate economic contraction rather than improved supply security.

"Albanese to announce interest-free loans for businesses hit by fuel crisis - The Conversation" (The Conversation), 1 Apr. 30 top articles tracked across 4 categories (from 192 scanned, 48 scored high-relevance). 169 new since the previous scan. Note: news data is 52 days old — re-run the scraper for current coverage. This signal tracks government fuel policy decisions, international supply agreements, ACCC enforcement, and supply chain disruptions from public news sources. It does not assess the quality or accuracy of reporting — it surfaces what is being reported so citizens can follow developments as they unfold.

Federal excise: 52.6 c/L (25%). GST: 19.5 c/L (9%). What the retailer keeps: 6.9 c/L (3%). The terminal gate price is set by Ampol, Viva Energy, BP, and ExxonMobil via the Australian Institute of Petroleum. The ACCC monitors fuel pricing conduct but does not publish this breakdown for the public. Estimates use Brent crude, the US distillate crack spread (proxy for Singapore refining margin), and ACCC shipping benchmarks. Individual figures are approximate; the overall picture is structurally sound.

Diesel wholesale is 17% above long-run average — this flows through to everything moved by truck. Near-term pressure (weeks): freight costs. Medium-term (months): farm inputs and rate compounding. Weekly household basket (18 staple items): $93.89 at baseline prices. Estimated freight-driven increase at current diesel: +$1.80/week (~$94/year). This is a structural estimate based on published freight cost shares, not a forecast of what you will pay. Hardest-hit categories: Fresh fruit & veg (+2.6%), Meat (+2.1%), Dairy (+1.7%). Based on NSW metro prices (Dec 2025) via Anuna recipe-price. Freight-only impact — does not include farm input costs, energy, or labour.

Retail margin: 7.6 c/L (3.7%). Margin is within the typical 10-15 c/L range. Wholesale price movements are being passed through normally. When margins widen during a crisis, it signals that retailers are pricing above cost-justified levels. When they compress, retailers are absorbing pain — temporarily.

Feed disappearances are a floor, not a ceiling — stations can be out of fuel and still appear in price data. Only WA and NSW publish station-level data. Victoria, Queensland, SA, Tasmania, NT, and ACT have no public station-level feeds — outages in those states are invisible to independent monitoring.

Australia imports the majority of its fertiliser (urea, DAP, MAP) — primarily from the Middle East and Asia, through the same shipping routes now blocked. Australian growers are shifting to less fertiliser-intensive crops for winter planting. This is a double hit for agriculture: fuel costs up AND input costs up simultaneously. Downstream effect: food prices will follow with a 3-6 month lag.